Porto vs Benfica
11/05 8:30pm
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This is not a game, this is the game that everyone wants to watch, that
every tipster want to predict ... and any punter wants to bet!
2 games until the end of the League and Porto has now the chance of winning it, they only depend on them and looking for the recent history, normally they do not fail this opportunities on Portuguese League.
On other side, Benfica, the strongest team this season, an awesome
attack that is showing their potential not only in Portugal, but also in
Europe where they will play the Europa League final against Chelsea 4
days after this game.2 games until the end of the League and Porto has now the chance of winning it, they only depend on them and looking for the recent history, normally they do not fail this opportunities on Portuguese League.
Porto has two problems to this game, Izmaylov is not an option and Alex Sandro will be back from injury directly to a game with 100%+ on intensity! Remember that the Benfica vs Porto this season had 4 goals in less than 20 minutes, however, I believe this will be a different game due the fact of a draw is enough to Benfica objectives.
On Saturday, no one want to suffer an early goal, so, I do not expect any team taking many risks on the beginning of the game.
Porto have to win, a draw make low their chances of be the Champion to less than 10%, while a win, obligate their to win the last game away, but that is not a "big" problem for Porto.
This season, Porto has revealed weakness on crucial moments, they´ve lost against PSG when they tried to assure the 1st spot on CL group stage, against Malaga when they went there with a positive result 1-0 obtained at home and also against Braga on League Cup final, however, two games were away from home and one in neutral stadium, this time it´s in front of all the fans and against their biggest rival.
Benfica is showing some tiredness on last few games, which is normal to a team that is still playing on 3 competitions on the end of the season.
Porto have to win, a draw make low their chances of be the Champion to less than 10%, while a win, obligate their to win the last game away, but that is not a "big" problem for Porto.
This season, Porto has revealed weakness on crucial moments, they´ve lost against PSG when they tried to assure the 1st spot on CL group stage, against Malaga when they went there with a positive result 1-0 obtained at home and also against Braga on League Cup final, however, two games were away from home and one in neutral stadium, this time it´s in front of all the fans and against their biggest rival.
Benfica is showing some tiredness on last few games, which is normal to a team that is still playing on 3 competitions on the end of the season.
For tomorrow, the team is in full power, only Enzo is doubtful, this
could be a new without much importance on a team that has plenty of
players to rotate it , however, only André Gomes has skills to do his job,
because Aimar is not in-form and Martins is suspended but even if he
wasn´t I do not see capacity on that guy..all that said but I´m almost
sure that Enzo will play tomorrow.
The Referee of this game is not less
than the best of the world in 2012, Pedro Proença, which do not satisfy
Benfica fans due some errors that they attribute to the referee on past
games against Porto.
Looking to the odds, is the first time we see Benfica so behind in the odds this season, we could bought Benfica at @4 on Betfair, which is amazing for trading in my opinion, odds will drop until the kick-off, and more 10%+ on first 5 min of the game, a correct odd would be around 3.20 in my opinion. While Porto opened a bit low and now is getting to the "pair".
Looking to the odds, is the first time we see Benfica so behind in the odds this season, we could bought Benfica at @4 on Betfair, which is amazing for trading in my opinion, odds will drop until the kick-off, and more 10%+ on first 5 min of the game, a correct odd would be around 3.20 in my opinion. While Porto opened a bit low and now is getting to the "pair".
The big question here is to know if Benfica can win or draw this game in front of a team surrounded by 50k fans and looking for a win to save the season! I believe Porto will own the ball possession, the midfield is stronger at the moment, Fernando Moutinho and Lucho are a bit more in-form than Matic and Enzo and counting that the tactic of Jorge Jesus for tomorrow will pass by the same they´ve applied with Newcastle on 2nd leg of Europa League semi final where they had an advantage of 3-1 at home, it means that they will suffer a an intensive attack from Porto, so, the efficiency of counter movements is high or Porto will take 3 point tomorrow, and the truth is that Benfica this season has been lethal and we should expect it that way tomorrow.
Saying that, I´m not counting with a entry taking too many risks, because the afraid of losing will be huge for both teams, but when appears the 1st goal, the game character will change drastically and we will see the teams looking for goals desperately.
X or Benfica around @1.9+ is still a great value that we have to take, for a game
that I also expect more goals on 2nd half due the nature of the game and that
both teams will score until the final whistle.
This is a special game and due to that we will recommend to put in game 2 flat stakes 10/10, divided in 4 value bets :
Both Teams to Score @1.73 5/10Over 2.5 @1.95 5/10 Benfica AH +0.50 ( Benfica or Draw ) @1.95 5/10
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We recommend to take more 0.5 of your flat stake value in 3 special bets that we believe it worth the risk- Anytime goalscorer market.
We recommend to take more 0.5 of your flat stake value in 3 special bets that we believe it worth the risk- Anytime goalscorer market.
Special bets :
Lucho Gonzalez to score @6 2/10 Unibet Salvio to score @5.75 1/10 Unibet Oscar Cardozo to score @2.90 2/10 Unibet
After a big battle between these two teams, we expect a "green" field for us in the end!
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The cards market is not open at the time we did the preview for this game, however, if it opens above 1.75 - Over 5.5 cards, we think it worth it half of flat stake
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