Thursday, May 16, 2013

[Liga Zon Sagres] 30th Round - Portuguese League

 Liga Zon Sagres - Round 30
19/05 6:30pm




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A lot of places on the table are in doubt until this last Sunday, only Paços Ferreira has granted the 3rd place and a Champions Spot, Braga the EL and Guimarães also the EL, due play the final of Portuguese cup against Benfica , already qualified for Champions.

On the bottom, Moreirense, Olhanense, Beira-Mar, Gil Vicente and Setubal have to chose 2 of them for relegation.

Porto and Benfica will discuss the title!

That information assimilated, let´s beat the bookies on the final round.


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Gil Vicente vs Estoril

Under 2.50 @2.05


A draw in this game is almost enough for both !

Gil almost guarantee the maintenance with a draw ( Olhanense and Moreirense had to win both to put Gil on a relegation spot) and Estoril the Europe, so, I believe that they will play with some precautions and if one scores a goal, the maximum I can see is a draw 1-1.

Gil is with 2 Cb missing the coach is with some problems to fill that position, but is probable that Sandro recover to do the last 90min. On the RB we will see some changes too, Arantes is suspended.

Estoril can take advantage of those misses on Gil, however, I do not see any chance of take too many risks, when a draw guarantee their goals.

If Gil balance too much in attack they know that Estoril is lethal, so  I really expect a game without many chances in 1st half, and in case both Olhanense and Moreirense are losing or not winning their games at half time ( which is expectable ), is probably to see here a commitment of both teams on a final draw.

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Guimarães vs Rio Ave

Rio Ave +0.50 @1.90

Guimarães against all the odds made a great season with lot of players coming from the B team, they almost on a European place on the table and also on the Portuguese Cup final against Benfica.

Rio Ave need to win Guimarães and wait that Estoril lose against Gil, a difficult goal to this team, however, they need to concentrate on their job and  they are capable to face Guimarães in the eyes and achieve 3 points.
Guimarães has two points against them for this game, first is the fact of 3 players from A team played by Bs on the middle of the week and Alex that is still injured, the other point is the upcoming final against Benfica, no one want to get injured now, so I believe that they won´t give it all on this game, making possible the dream of Rio Ave achieve the Europe.

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Paços Ferreira vs Porto

Both to score @2.30

Porto last week changed all the calculations for the title, now they´re first one point ahead Benfica and just need to win their game.
For this game their DMC Fernando is injured, so Defour or Castro should replace him on this important game, even not being the same, both have the quality to do the place.

Paços Ferreira for the first time in history has qualified for Champions League Playoff, they made a big party after the last game and on Sunday they will play for the glory and just for it.

I expect a strong Porto that will win the game but not so easy has the odds try to transmit.
I do not believe in a easy or fixed match, Paços created a big problem with the ticked for Porto supporters due the fact of they achieved the champions, they would like to have a stadium full of their own supporters.

This will be a game by two teams with a very different mentality, one is totally under pressure and the other can take all the pleasure from the game, which will be dangerous in some situations. Paços has a lot of character, quality and they only lost against Benfica at home, on a field where they normally score, so, I believe that they will score at least a goal, even losing the game like I said before.

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Benfica vs Moreirense

Both Teams to Score  @2.10 5/10

Moreirense +2.00 @2.02  5/10

Moreirense has been beaten twice on last minutes of the game, just like Benfica.
Against Braga and Sporting the team of Mr. Inacio deserved better luck than lose. With those points they could be out of danger and now only a win against Benfica guarantee them a 1st league spot for next year.


They do not count with Anilton 27app CB, which is an important miss to face Benfica, the team that lost the EL final on overtime can be have morale down but they will play to win, even thinking that will miss some intensity.


Moreirense is  a team that never lose their orientation, we´ve seen them losing 2-0 against Braga and recovering in 10 minutes and losing 3-2 in overtime against Sporting.
I believe they will do a great game and if they do not achieve a draw, I believe that they do not lose by more than 1 goal and Ghilas their striker will be an extremely danger ( he is doubtful for some newspapers, but I´m sure he will play )


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Beira-Mar vs Sporting

Over 2.50 @2.05

Beira-Mar will play this game aiming just one victory, there is no other result than a victory to gave them the continuation on 1st league.

On other is a disappointing Sporting that made their worst qualification of ever and is out of Europe.
The team of Sporting has nothing to win in this game but they will play for win, they have to do the best possible to theirs fans and also to give a little help to Moreirense, Inacio actual coach of Moreirense will be the next Football director of Sporting.
 


On Beira-Mar side we should expect that they leave all in the pitch, they´ve one important miss, Nildo, and one return , Rui Sampaio.
The tactic of Beira-Mar can be only one, risk it, because the young team of Sporting will play the game by the game and it will be hard to avoid a goal against the quickness of Sporting attack, Bruma , Capel, Van Wolfswinkel have all the capacities to score more than one goal on a game that I expect to be open.


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